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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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3/Contrary to a lot of public discussion, Larry’s thesis is about interest rates and supply/demand of capital, not technology change. #stag
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4/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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12/To quote Notorious BIG, « mo money mo problems » — in this case, mo money, not enough productive places & projects to put it. #stag
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13/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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1/A few tentative conclusions on secular stagnation & our economy, with vigorous disclaimer that I am far from a macroeconomist… #stag
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43/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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2/It seems a core dynamic of our times is too much capital relative to the number of productive investible economic opportunities. #stag
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44/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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3/Coupled with a massive global capital flight to quality since 2008, hard to see interest rates rising dramatically anytime soon. #stag
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45/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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4/While I am a bull on technological progress, it also seems that much of that progress is price deflationary in nature…
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46/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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5/…so even extremely rapid tech progress may not show up in GDP or productivity stats, even as it = higher real standards of living. #stag
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47/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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6/I think economists, particularly on the center-left and left, are really underestimating 2 factors that are inhibiting investment. #stag
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48/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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10/It seems straightforward to identify ways to increase rate of investment, and also hard to see how any of that politically happens. #stag
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52/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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12/But this is not necessarily a terrible world to live in. In fact, it might be a wonderful world to live in, for these reasons: #stag
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54/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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13/Oversupply of capital means that any investable project can get funded. We see that today in tech, and it may broaden from here. #stag
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55/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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14/We may experience a massive global demographic tailwind, as huge # of young people worldwide are fully connected to modern economy. #stag
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56/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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15/Virtuous cycle of science & tech advances, with fast-growing # of scientists & technologists globally, may overwhelm expectations. #stag
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57/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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16/In this world, we can have massive advances in real standards of living even w/formally low investment, GDP, & productivity growth. #stag
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58/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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17/Beyond that, a world where 7 billion people decide they really do want and deserve an upper-middle-class Amercan-equiv lifestyle… #stag
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59/60 |
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@pmarcaMarc Andreessen
29 dec.
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18/…may make all of these current stagnation theories look as silly as Alvin « Secular Stagnation » Hansen now looks 76 years later. #stag
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60/60 |
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